March 13, 2026 • Middle East
AMERICAN ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN: With escalation looming in the shadow of attrition, who will be the first to collapse in the US-Israeli-Iranian conflict? - Full Infograph
Analysis of the US-Israeli aerial bombardment campaign against Iran and Iran's missile and drone offensive, covering military strategy, damage assessments, economic costs, leadership changes, and potential ground invasion scenarios.
📝 SMikhail
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1300
Iranian Cruise Missiles Launched
Number of cruise missiles launched by Iran in its initial attack on Israel.
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70
Iranian Hypersonic Missiles Launched
Number of hypersonic missiles (Khorramshahr, Kheibar Shekan, Fattah) launched by Iran in its initial attack.
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2000
Iranian Drones Launched
Number of drones launched by Iran in its initial attack.
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3000+
Targets Struck in Iran
Total number of targets reportedly hit and destroyed by US and Israeli forces inside Iran.
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31
Iranian Provinces
Total provinces in Iran.
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30
Provinces Struck
Number of Iranian provinces (out of 31) that were hit by US/Israeli strikes, according to CENTCOM.
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90%
Reduction in Iranian Launches
Percentage decrease in Iranian missile and drone launches from day one to day ten of the war (from 480 missiles/720 drones to 40 missiles/60 drones).
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60%
Missile Launch Pads Destroyed
Percentage of Iranian missile launch pads reportedly destroyed by US/Israeli strikes.
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43
Naval Vessels Destroyed
Number of vessels in the Iranian naval fleet reportedly destroyed entirely.
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$14 Billion
Estimated Total US Losses (12 Days)
Estimated total US losses including $12 billion in operational costs ($1bn/day) and $2 billion from destroyed THAAD systems, Al Udeid radar, and three aircraft shot down in Kuwait.
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7,500
Bombs Dropped by Israel on Iran
Total number of bombs reportedly dropped by Israel on Iran.
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$1.3 Billion
Estimated Israeli Losses (1 Day)
Estimated cost for Israel covering aerial interception and offensive sorties for a single day.
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13
Israeli Arms Sales (2025)
Value in billions of dollars of Israeli arms sales in 2025, which are predicted to collapse.
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20:60-100
Missile Exchange Ratio
Iran needs to launch ~20 missiles/day to sustain the war; Israel needs 60-100 interceptors/day to counter them.
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18
82nd Airborne Deployment Time
Number of hours it takes for the US 82nd Airborne Division to deploy.
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90%
Kharg Island Oil Exports
Percentage of Iran's oil exports that pass through Kharg Island.
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450 kg
Uranium Enriched to 60%
Amount of uranium Iran has enriched to 60%.
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1000+ kg
Uranium Enriched to 20%
Amount of uranium Iran has enriched to 20% (over 1 ton).
- Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the previous Supreme Leader, was elected as the new Supreme Leader by the Revolutionary Guard.
- The election was met with sharp internal criticism based on the revolution's principle of rejecting hereditary succession (a practice of the Shah's regime).
- The choice is interpreted as an act of spite against Trump.
- For religious circles, it invokes the concept of 'blood legitimacy' and revenge for the assassination of his father.
- Fatwas from seminaries in Qom mandated avenging the killed leader, giving 'blood legitimacy' priority to the son to act as the 'guardian of the blood'.
- Mojtaba is described as not a traditional man of religion, indicating the Revolutionary Guard's absolute rule.
- There is unconfirmed speculation that Mojtaba was seriously injured on the first day of the war when his father's headquarters were destroyed, and that he is in a coma.
- Trump stated that some Iranian leaders have either died or are waiting for death due to injuries.
- Analysts suggest the naming of Mojtaba as leader might be a deception, with the real, more extremist leader being secretly elected, possibly Ayatollah Mohsen Araki or Ayatollah Ali Reza Arafi.
- Stage 1: Destroy the radars of early warning systems (the source of information for interceptor missiles).
- Stage 2: Exhaust the stockpile of American and Israeli interceptor missiles using cheap drones and missiles.
- Stage 3: Deploy the best Iranian hypersonic missiles (Khorramshahr, Kheibar Shekan, Fattah) with cluster warheads, which were stored in tunnels, underground, and deep inside mountains, against targets.
- American protection in the Gulf consists of four layers: military satellites, destroyers/warships, early warning radars at Al Udeid base (Qatar), and distributed systems in the region.
- The radar at Al Udeid base was targeted by three attacks and completely put out of service.
- Three THAAD systems were successfully targeted and put out of service: one at Muwaffaq Salti base (Jordan), one in the UAE, and one in Saudi Arabia.
- The cost of destroying these three THAAD systems and the Al Udeid radar was over $4 billion.
- The loss of these three systems created a cumulative, geometric (not arithmetic) effect on detection capability, more than three times the loss of a single system.
- This 'blinded' the American monitoring network, increasing error rates in detection and interception.
- The Pentagon is preparing the 82nd Airborne Division (5,000 fighters, deploys in 18 hours, specializes in parachute landings and seizing cities).
- Objective 1: Land on sparsely populated Iranian islands near the coast to establish a support base to secure the Strait of Hormuz and lower oil prices, and to set up air defense systems to shoot down drones.
- Objective 2: Secure three nuclear sites at Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz to extract the stockpile of 60% enriched uranium and transport it to the US.
- If extraction is impossible, American nuclear scientists (possibly from the IAEA) would accompany division officers to destroy or dissolve the uranium on-site, rendering it unusable.
- Objective 3: Impose control over Kharg Island, the main strategic platform responsible for 90% of Iran's oil exports.
- Iran has warned that if its ports are targeted, the ports of Gulf countries will be legitimate targets for Iranian strikes.
- The mission may be carried out by the 82nd, the 101st, the Israeli Sayeret Matkal unit, or a joint force.
- The mission will not begin until it is confirmed that remaining Iranian military capabilities cannot pose a significant threat.
- The cost of US military operations is $1 billion per day.
- Total US losses in the first 12 days are estimated at $14 billion (including operational costs and destroyed equipment).
- The US has realized that overthrowing the Iranian regime with airstrikes alone is impossible.
- The strategic goal is shifting from regime change to bankrupting Iran for the next 20 years by destroying its economic infrastructure.
- Iran is seen as an obstacle to American dominance due to its cooperation with China's Belt and Road Initiative (railway from Iran to Afghanistan to Central Asia to China) and $400 billion in agreements with China.
- Iran supplying Russia with drones and missiles in its war with Ukraine is considered a major strategic mistake by the US.
- Iran has refused a recent American ceasefire offer but expressed readiness for a complete cessation if there are international guarantees against future attacks.
- The Strait of Hormuz is almost closed, and the price of oil has exceeded $100.
- Israel dropped 7,500 bombs on Iran (twice the amount in the 12-day war).
- Estimated losses for a single day are $1.3 billion for interception and offensive sorties.
- The Bank of Israel has used part of its foreign currency reserves to finance the war.
- The military censor is hiding the true extent of damage to strategic infrastructure.
- Satellite images from China and Russia and leaked videos by residents have revealed the extent of the disaster.
- Strikes hit airbases including Nevatim and Ramon, and intelligence headquarters including Mossad and Aman (military intelligence) facilities.
- The Glilot base north of Tel Aviv, main headquarters of Unit 8200 (responsible for cyber espionage), was hit.
- The fall of missiles on a fortified compound in Tel Aviv is considered a 'military earthquake'.
- Tel Aviv prevented media and citizens from approaching or filming the impact sites.
- The theory of Israel's 'absolute deterrence' has collapsed.
- Arms sales, which reached $13 billion in 2025, are predicted to collapse after the world witnessed the failure of the Iron Dome against Iranian missiles.
- Israel is transitioning from a source of protection to a 'heavy strategic burden' on America.
- The core vulnerability is economic: Iran needs ~20 missiles/day to sustain the war, while Israel needs 60-100 interceptors/day, a ratio that is unsustainable.
- Iran warned that if any of its ports are targeted, the ports of Gulf countries will be legitimate targets for its strikes.
- Iran does not accept a ceasefire without international guarantees against future attacks.
- Iran has approximately 450 kg of uranium enriched to 60% and over 1,000 kg enriched to 20%.
- A draft resolution by over 70 Iranian parliamentarians calls for Iran to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
- The status of Iran's nuclear program is described as being in a state of 'nuclear ambiguity'.
KEY QUOTES
"The truth is that the loss of the three systems had a cumulative effect, in a geometric, not arithmetic, progression, so it was more than three times the loss of a single system." — Rafah Al-Ansari
"This war is no longer managed on the basis of who has the most advanced weapons and technology, but has become based on who will exhaust the other side's ammunition and missiles first." — Rafah Al-Ansari
"The summary of the American position is that Trump is in a severe predicament, and his administration has realized that the larger strategic goal of this war cannot be achieved, namely, overthrowing the Iranian regime with airstrikes alone, without a ground invasion." — Rafah Al-Ansari
"With this slogan ('let us suffer in silence'), the theory of Israel's absolute deterrence fell, and Israel transformed from a source of protection into a heavy strategic burden on America." — Rafah Al-Ansari
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82nd Airborne Division
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Kheibar Shekan
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