April 4, 2026 • USA
The USA-Israel War on Iran is all about China - Full Infograph
In a detailed analysis, retired Army Colonel and former Powell chief of staff Larry Wilkerson argues the Trump administration’s war on Iran is driven by panic over China’s land-based Belt and Road Initiative, not just Tehran. He warns that after failing to halt Iranian strikes or open the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. is now considering suicidal amphibious assaults on Iran’s offshore islands (like Kharg Island, which processes 90% of Iran’s oil exports). Wilkerson predicts any ground operation would be a “humiliating defeat” and a “quagmire” far worse than Iraq or Afghanistan, potentially triggering a global depression by shutting both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. He concludes the U.S. is the declining power fighting a rising China by proxy in Iran, with no exit strategy other than a disastrous ground war.
📝 SMikhail
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Panic-driven
Trump Admin Motive
Contradictory statements from the White House about the war on Iran are evidence of panic caused by inability to halt Iranian attacks, open the Strait of Hormuz, or cope with a mounting global financial crisis.
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Kharg Island
Strategic Target
Lies 16 miles off Iran's coast and processes 90% of the country's oil exports. U.S. is considering seizing it via amphibious assault.
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China
Real Enemy
Wilkerson argues the war is ultimately about stopping China’s Belt and Road Initiative (land-based railroads) which would shift 60% of Asia-Europe trade from sea to land, making the U.S. Navy irrelevant.
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Global Depression
Potential Outcome
If Iran hits second-tier targets (Saudi oil fields, UAE) and Houthis close the Red Sea, the world could face a global depression, not just a recession.
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~100+
Estimated U.S. Casualties
Wilkerson believes U.S. military casualties are already well over a hundred, including civilians, but are being hidden from the public.
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Pentagon Resistance
Millennium Challenge 2002
A 2002 war game showed Iran handing the U.S. its ‘rear end’. The game was so bad it had to be redone, but Iran still won. This is why the Pentagon has resisted a ground war for decades.
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Nuclear Threshold
Postol Warning
MIT expert Ted Postol says Iran has enough highly enriched uranium and warhead tech to build a nuclear weapon, and might do so if Netanyahu (Israel) prepares to use nukes first.
- Nowhere good. Wilkerson states the U.S. is in a panic because it cannot halt Iranian attacks or reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- The administration is considering ground operations and amphibious assaults to seize Iranian islands (Abu Musa, Greater/Lesser Tunbs, Lark, and especially Kharg Island).
- Any such assault will be incredibly risky, result in large casualty rates, and likely fail due to Iran’s anti-ship missiles, underwater drones, and mines.
- Wilkerson sees a high probability of the U.S. getting 'sucked into a quagmire as we did in Iraq and Afghanistan, one that perhaps will end in humiliating defeat.'
- He concludes that the U.S. cannot win; Iran only has to 'not lose' to win, while the U.S. needs a spectacular victory that is impossible to achieve.
- Wilkerson argues the war is actually about stopping China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which would build a railroad through Iran linking Chinese Pacific ports to Europe in 16 hours.
- This would shift 60% of global commerce from sea to land, making the U.S. Navy (the 'protector of the seas') obsolete.
- He claims the same geostrategic competition is behind the Ukraine war, which stopped a central railroad going into Europe.
- Iran has already executed a first tier of targets: they hit Bahrain, destroying the Fifth Fleet headquarters and the largest oil refinery in the Gulf, forcing the Bahraini royal family and U.S. personnel to flee.
- They hit Erbil (Kurdistan, Iraq) and blew it out, hitting U.S. embassy in Baghdad (now on emergency personnel only).
- They sent 2,000 U.S. personnel back to Norfolk, VA with nothing but a kit bag.
- Wilkerson says the first tier was a warning: 'We're not going to hit Saudi Arabia. We're going to hit the U.S.'
- The second tier of targets would devastate Saudi Arabia (Ras Tanura: 650,000 barrels/day; Ghawar field: 7% of world’s best oil supply), the UAE, and other Gulf states.
- This, combined with Houthis closing the Red Sea (Bab el-Mandeb), would take two of the world’s most important waterways out of commission.
- The result would be a global depression, not a recession. Even Russia (currently in the catbird seat) would suffer.
- Wilkerson doubts a successful amphibious assault is possible. Iran has 1,875 miles of coastline armed to the teeth with anti-ship missiles.
- The U.S. would have to use Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft from ships 1,300 miles away (near Diego Garcia). Ospreys have a 350-400 mile range and are notoriously unreliable ('Marines dread getting on an Osprey').
- Any assault would see Ospreys shot down, Marines killed in route or while landing. Establishing a beachhead would be near impossible.
- The Millennium Challenge 2002 war game showed Iran handing the U.S. a defeat so bad the Pentagon ordered the game redone – with the same results.
- MIT Professor Ted Postol (nuclear expert) told Wilkerson that Iran has enough highly enriched uranium underground and warhead technology to build a nuclear weapon.
- They have learned underground construction from North Korea, who taught them everything.
- If Netanyahu (Israel) prepares to use nuclear weapons against Iran, Iran might strike first. Israel is much smaller; a couple of nuclear weapons would end Israel.
- Wilkerson laments that Trump ripped up the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal and assassinated a supreme leader who had prohibited nuclear weapons on religious grounds, essentially paving the way for Iran to go nuclear.
- Wilkerson sees no way for the U.S. to extract itself from this war other than claiming victory and leaving – which he doubts Trump can do.
- He quotes an Israeli newspaper (Haaretz): 'All Iran has to do to win is not lose. The United States to win has to have a spectacular victory.'
- A spectacular victory is impossible. Iran will fight to the last person standing.
- The U.S. does not have the forces for a large ground war (a 2002 plan for a ground war in Iran required 2 million men and would cost trillions).
- If the U.S. instituted a draft, half of 18-24 year olds would flee to Mexico or Canada.
- Wilkerson criticizes Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General CQ Brown (Air Force) for not understanding ground warfare.
- He claims Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has demoralized the military, fired officers who understand ground warfare, and interfered with promotion boards.
- The U.S. has no diplomats to match China’s Wang Yi or Russia’s Lavrov, a 'huge deficit'.
KEY QUOTES
The contradictory statements emanating from the Trump White House about the war on Iran are evidence of panic.
What will such an assault… mean for the global economy? Or will a ground war rather than end the conflict widen and prolong it? Will we find ourselves sucked into a quagmire as we did in Iraq and Afghanistan? One that perhaps will end in humiliating defeat.
If US troops land on one or more of these Iranian islands, how effective will Iran's anti-ship cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, underwater drones, and mines be in thwarting an assault or an occupation?
We really are for some reason actually trying to stop China from executing its probably potentially at least most dangerous space road initiative to our interest.
If that happens, then all maritime nations, leading of which is the United States… will no longer have seas really worth protecting in the sense of commerce because commerce will be basically landborne. At least 60% of it will come out of Asia and go to Europe and elsewhere on the land.
I think we're well over a hundred [casualties] and it includes some civilians that got injured in the frey in Qatar, Prince Sultan.
All Iran has to do to win is not lose. The United States to win has to have a spectacular victory.
He was right. And no country is going to be made more resolute by bombs.
It's his sea. It's his territory of water. And why do you need an inc sea agreement? You need it because of the United States, not because of Iran.
Iran war
US military
Larry Wilkerson
Trump administration
Persian Gulf
Strait of Hormuz
amphibious assault
Kharg Island
China Belt and Road Initiative
global depression
quagmire
humiliating defeat
Iran nuclear weapon
Ted Postol
Pentagon resistance
Millennium Challenge 2002
Bahrain fifth fleet
Houthis Red Sea
Israel Netanyahu
ground war casualties