April 5, 2026 • Russia / Ukraine / Europe / Iran / China
Like USA-Israel War on Iran, Ukraine War is All About The Hidden Railroad to China - Full Infograph
Retired Colonel Larry Wilkerson reveals that the Ukraine war is not about NATO expansion but about stopping China's Belt and Road Initiative. He explains that Ukraine stopped the very central railroad which was already making 16-hour trips into the heart of Europe (to Bremerhaven, Le Havre, and other critical European trade hubs). Wilkerson argues that Russia has a choice between China and the West, and currently looks like it's going with China, though Trump's strange relationship with Putin complicates matters. He notes Russia is both a maritime and land power, with a formidable and growing Arctic capability due to receding ice. Putin wants a better relationship with Washington, not with Europe or NATO, which Trump is destroying. The war on Iran is ultimately a 'sledgehammer' thrown into this geostrategic struggle between rising power (China) and declining power (US).
📝 SMikhail
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16 Hours
China-to-Europe Rail Time
China's Belt and Road railroad through Iran would reduce shipping time from 1.5-2 days to about 16 hours, linking Chinese Pacific ports to the heart of Europe.
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Ukraine
Central Railroad Stopped
Ukraine stopped the very central railroad of China's Belt and Road Initiative, which was already making 16-hour trips into Europe (to Bremerhaven, Le Havre, and other places).
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Russia
Choice Between East and West
Russia has a choice between China and the West. It looks like she's going with China, but Putin wants a better relationship with Washington, not Europe or NATO.
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Arctic
Russia's Growing Maritime Power
Russia's maritime capability is growing every moment due to its Arctic coastline and receding ice, making it a formidable sea power in addition to its traditional land power.
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Bremerhaven & Le Havre
European Trade Hubs
Chinese Belt and Road railroads were already making 16-hour trips into the heart of Europe, going all the way to Bremerhaven (Germany), Le Havre (France), and other critical European ports.
- Wilkerson states the war on Iran and the Ukraine war are both about stopping China's Belt and Road Initiative.
- Ukraine stopped the very central railroad which was already making 16-hour trips into the heart of Europe.
- That railroad went all the way to Bremerhaven, Le Havre, and other places critical to European trade.
- He suggests Biden, Blinken, and Sullivan had strategic reasons for the Ukraine war beyond what they told the public—it was about stopping China's land bridge to Europe.
- Russia has a choice to make between China and the West, and she hasn't made it yet.
- It looks like Russia is going with China, but there's a strange relationship between Trump and Putin.
- Putin wants a better relationship with Washington, and maybe even a helping hand—not with Europe, not with NATO, not with the transatlantic link.
- Putin sees something left in Washington worth being friendly with, even as Trump destroys transatlantic relationships.
- Russia is both a maritime power and a land power, principally the latter as Mackinder made clear (Heartland theory).
- Russia has a formidable maritime capability now, growing every moment due to its Arctic coastline and the receding ice in the Arctic.
- This Arctic expansion gives Russia new warm-water access and strategic options.
- The central railroad through Iran would link China's Pacific ports to Europe in a way that would reduce shipping time from 1.5-2 days to about 16 hours.
- Trains have already plied these railroads, including the one going through the southern part of Iran.
- European trade hubs affected include Bremerhaven (Germany) and Le Havre (France).
- If that happens, at least 60% of commerce will come out of Asia and go to Europe on land, making sea lanes less relevant.
- Wilkerson calls the US war on Iran 'throwing a sledgehammer' into the geostrategic landscape.
- Iran is upsetting everybody's plans, including China's Belt and Road, Russia's calculations, and Europe's trade routes.
- The war is much more consequential than tactical or operational stupidity—it is tied to a much bigger tapestry of geopolitical and geostrategic reality.
- This is a struggle between rising power (China) and declining power (the US).
- If Iran executes its second-tier targets (Saudi oil fields, UAE) and Houthis close the Red Sea, Europe would face a global depression.
- The global economy is close to recession right now (two quarters in a row).
- A global depression would impact Russia too, which looks like it's sitting in the catbird seat right now but might not be if things turn sour.
- The European trade that depends on the Suez Canal/Red Sea route would be severely disrupted.
- Wilkerson calls the Trump-Putin relationship 'kind of strange really.'
- He suggests that if you understand what Putin wants (a better relationship with Washington), the relationship makes more sense.
- Trump is destroying the transatlantic link and NATO, which aligns with Putin's interests.
- Wilkerson implies there are 'masters in the shadows' behind both Trump and the administration.
- Wilkerson concludes that this is a monumental change and a struggle between rising power and declining power.
- There is no question about that now, more than people think or know.
- The war on Iran looks tactically and operationally stupid at the moment, but is tied to this much bigger geopolitical reality.
- The US has nothing to match Chinese diplomats (Wang Yi) or Russian diplomats (Sergei Lavrov)—a huge deficit.
KEY QUOTES
It's also behind Ukraine because Ukraine stopped the very central railroad which was already making 16-hour trips into the heart of Europe going all the way to Bremerhaven and Le Havre and other places like that critical to European trade.
Think about that for a moment as to why Joe Biden and others—Blinken and Sullivan—might have had some reason for doing Ukraine as it were rather than what they've been telling us or what they did tell us. This is all about China and it's all about stopping China.
Russia has a choice. She's both maritime power and land power principally the latter as Mackinder made clear. Um, but she does have a formidable maritime capability now growing every moment by her Arctic coastline and the receding ice in the Arctic. So, she's got a choice to make and she hadn't made it yet.
It looks like she's going with China, but there's this relationship between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, which is kind of strange really if you think about it. Unless you understand what Putin wants, which is a better relationship with Washington, and maybe even a helping hand. Not to Europe, not to NATO, not to the transatlantic link. He's destroyed those or is destroying them, but to Washington because he sees there's something left there worth being friendly with.
This is all about China and it's all about stopping China. Which is to say, I'm not sure that any of this administration that is functioning in front of us every day knows anything about this other than that their masters have told them to do this.
And so it has these ramifications that make things that look tactically and even operationally stupid at the moment and yet are tied to this much bigger tapestry of geopolitical and geostrategic reality. Declining power, rising power.
We have nothing to match them [China's Wang Yi and Russia's Lavrov]. We have nothing to even come close to them which is a huge deficit right now.
All maritime nations, leading of which is the United States, of course, the protector of the seas, will no longer have seas really worth protecting in the sense of commerce because commerce will be basically landborne. At least 60% of it will come out of Asia and go to Europe and elsewhere on the land.
Russia
Ukraine
China Belt and Road Initiative
Larry Wilkerson
Europe
Bremerhaven
Le Havre
Putin
Trump
Arctic
maritime power
land power
Mackinder
Heartland
global depression
transatlantic link
NATO
Biden
Blinken
Sullivan
Wang Yi
Lavrov
declining power
rising power
Iran war
geostrategy