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When representatives of the United States and Iran met in Geneva under the guise of negotiations, the table held not
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only negotiating papers for reaching an agreement, but was also surrounded by aircraft carriers
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in motion, missiles being silently prepared, and war plans being drawn up in parallel with cold diplomatic smiles in
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the background. President Trump was managing the scene from behind the scenes, while Israel, the ever
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-present absentee, watched the negotiations with one eye on the table and the other on launching a preemptive strike. What transpired
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was not an ordinary round of negotiations, but a dangerous chapter in the battle to reshape the global balance of power,
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where deals are used as weapons and military buildups as a language of pressure. Therefore, what is happening
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now may be merely the calm before the greater explosion in the Middle East and the world. Let's begin
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our program this evening
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. Good evening, Ramadan Kareem. May you and all our viewers be well, healthy, and happy every year. I will begin, based on
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the documented information available to me, by discussing the second round of
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indirect negotiations, which includes three main players, not two, since Israel is the
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ever-present absentee in these negotiations. Each of the three parties has a position, a plan, and interests, which have been
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expressed through statements by their leaders. The three parties were present before the start of negotiations,
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which coincided with military buildups and preparations by all three parties on the eve of the
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second round. This round took place on the evening of February 17th at the residence of the Omani ambassador in Geneva and lasted
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for three hours. However, prior to the start of the talks, there was significant activity in the form of a meeting held by
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Araqchi with Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and
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the Omani Foreign Minister. The Iranian position, which rejected the participation of American experts and inspectors
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alongside IAEA inspectors in the planned inspections
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of Iranian nuclear facilities, was discussed. Araqchi, however, expressed flexibility regarding the possibility of this participation after
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reaching and signing an agreement. The Iranian position was conveyed to Witkov and Kushner before the start
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of the negotiations, which accelerated the pace of the talks.
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As I mentioned, the talks lasted only three hours due to Witkov's commitments to mediating the talks between Russia and Ukraine
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in Geneva, which were scheduled to begin after the conclusion of the negotiations with Iran. Incidentally,
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Geneva was chosen as the venue for the negotiations. The US-Iranian talks were facilitated by Kushner, enabling him to
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carry out his mission on both the US-Iranian track and the US mediation between Russia
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and Ukraine. On another front, Kushner was in constant telephone contact with his son-in-law, Trump. This explains
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Trump's statement on Air Force One the day before the talks, that
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he would be indirectly involved in the negotiations, though he didn't elaborate. Immediately after the
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negotiation session concluded, the Iranian Foreign Minister announced positive developments
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compared to the previous round, stating that understandings had been reached on a set of key
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guiding principles. It is widely believed that both delegations resumed negotiations from the point of agreement
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reached in the fifth round of talks before the start of the 12-day war. This point was built
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upon in the last two rounds of negotiations, which could indeed accelerate the pace of
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negotiations and perhaps lead to the drafting of an agreement. Araghchi described this as potentially a difficult process
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, but he indicated that both sides had already begun drafting an agreement from their respective perspectives
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. The exchange of documents for revisions by the other side in
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subsequent rounds of negotiations does not necessarily mean an agreement is imminent in the next round. For example
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, Iraq G concluded that the overall outcome of this round was positive, even though
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details were not yet agreed upon. This round addressed details already agreed upon by both sides
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regarding the role of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as the central body responsible
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for verification, inspection, and safeguards during the implementation of the agreement between
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Iran and the United States concerning the Iranian nuclear program. However, in a shrewd move,
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Hamid Ghanbari, the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister
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for Economic Affairs, presented significant economic offers during the negotiations. These offers, which were enticing to the
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American side, included Iranian requests to purchase a fleet of Boeing passenger aircraft. He also presented offers
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to American oil companies to begin investing in the petroleum,
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natural gas, and mining sectors. Why did Iran present these offers to the
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"Great Satan," which is now preparing to strike Iran itself? In my estimation, Iran
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carefully calculated its moves to capitalize on Trump's nature. The dealmaker, in an attempt
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to circumvent the Israeli security narrative that dominates the State Department and the Pentagon,
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addressed American commercial interests with direct
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and immediate financial incentives in exchange for lifting sanctions and releasing frozen Iranian assets permanently
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and comprehensively, not just temporarily. This was achieved by placing a
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massive trade deal on the negotiating table in front of Trump's son-in-law, Kushner, who was in constant telephone contact with him,
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as I mentioned before, so that the message would reach Trump, the man of business deals. Will he take it?
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Trump is taking this into account. Is this offer genuine, or is it a ploy, a bait offered by Iran? Some believe
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the Iranian offer might be a tactic to buy time, especially since Iran is certain that
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Congress will oppose it under pressure from the Zionist lobby. However, Iran will appear before
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American public opinion as the rational party that offered peace, which Washington rejected to appease Israel.
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On another front, both the White House and the Omani Foreign Minister agreed that the round of negotiations
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was good in substance and positive in its overall framework. However, there is still much for all
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parties to discuss. A date and location for the next session have not yet been agreed upon, although it is rumored to
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be in two weeks due to the holy month of Ramadan. So what happened during and alongside the negotiations?
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The truth is that the negotiations were militarized by the massive military shipments we hear
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about daily arriving at American military bases in the region. Therefore, coinciding with
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the round of negotiations and the daily acceleration of these American buildups, Iran launched several missiles
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towards the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a partial closure of the strait as part of the naval maneuvers
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Iran is conducting in the Strait of Hormuz. The truth is that the commander of the armed forces... The Iranian navy confirmed that
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the weapons to be used in the war differ from those displayed in military exercises.
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Simultaneously, the Supreme Leader stated that Iran is capable of sinking
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American aircraft carriers. In my personal opinion, these two moves are intended to bolster the
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Iranian delegation's negotiating position in their talks, preventing the perception that Iran entered negotiations out of fear
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of Trump's threats to strike Iran and his boasting about the strength of his aircraft carriers and naval fleet. They
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also aim to counter claims that the Iranian delegation displayed unusual flexibility in this round of
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negotiations, giving the impression that American conditions had been largely accepted, which
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could be interpreted as a retreat from Iran's hardline stance. Therefore,
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Iranian political and military leaders issued strong and defiant statements. In reality, the Supreme Leader
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consistently conveys the impression that Trump is Iran's equal and counterpart, while
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Israel is considered a lesser enemy. The truth is that negotiations between Washington and Tehran
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have always followed a winding and ambiguous path, characterized by multiple phases and sometimes... With the replacement of mediators, the negotiations
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two days ago had a warlike flavor, proceeding amidst minefields after Trump's announcement,
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just one day before the negotiations began, that he would not object to Israel striking Iran should the negotiations fail.
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This included targeting Iranian ballistic missile production, storage, and launch sites,
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perhaps with Washington's assistance and coordination. This coincided with
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the Iranian negotiator's distrust stemming from an Israeli strike during
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previous negotiations that resulted in the 12-day war. Now, let me discuss the strategies
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of the three parties involved in this conflict: Iran on one side, and the US and Israel on
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the other. Let's begin with the US and the possibility of it deciding to strike Iran. To understand this,
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we must grasp the Pentagon's strategic principles and the dimensions of its hegemony,
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which consist of five pillars: land hegemony (since its withdrawal from
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Afghanistan, the US has been reluctant to have its ground forces outside American territory),
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space hegemony, and cyber hegemony (both space and cyber are conducted from within the country).
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American naval supremacy and air supremacy are the fifth priorities. Here we find that the Pentagon
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divides the world into 15 geographical regions, but more importantly, it divides them into six
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geostrategic military regions: the five continents plus the Middle East, specifically Israel, the
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Gulf states, and Egypt from Africa. Each region is allocated a military force with a separate central command.
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The military forces under each central command are
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deployed according to plans to protect American national interests and security. The most important element of these
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forces is naval supremacy, which is achieved through seven fleets. The first is located within
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the United States, the second in North America, the third in Europe,
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the fourth in Asia, and the fifth and sixth in the Middle East. Although the Middle East
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is the smallest region, it is the most strategically important. The seventh fleet is located
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in the South China Sea. However, achieving the principle of American naval supremacy and strategic dominance
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is not possible without air supremacy. This is where aircraft carriers come in.
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Its decks carry all types of bombers, fighters, electronic warfare aircraft
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, helicopters, and more. The US Navy has 11 aircraft carriers, each
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with an accompanying group of destroyers, frigates, and cruisers, perhaps as many as 10 to 12 vessels per
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carrier. I mentioned this to you in the previous episode. Three aircraft carriers are
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permanently stationed at sea. This incurs operating expenses for them and their accompanying vessels,
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in addition to the carriers on US soil, costing approximately $800 million daily.
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However, this exorbitant cost achieves three objectives overseas: it serves as a substitute for
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military bases, and it enables the execution of offensive operations as planned in a strike.
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Iran's two objectives are: first, to carry out defensive operations, as expected, prioritizing the defense of Israel and,
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if possible, the Gulf states; and second, to secure vital areas and targets, as anticipated, including
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securing American military bases in the region. This explains Trump's decision to redeploy
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the USS George H.W. Bush to the United States and to recall
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the world's largest aircraft carrier, the USS Jailford, which operates with two nuclear reactors. This
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recall came at Trump's direct request, even though the carrier had been on a long deployment off
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the Venezuelan coast for approximately eight months and required routine maintenance. However,
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political and strategic calculations outweighed logistical and technical considerations, making
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the Jailford the sole instrument for imposing American control. It joins the second largest
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aircraft carrier, the USS Abrams Lincoln, making the American forces deployed off the Iranian coast
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the decisive tool Trump has chosen to use in the balance of power, as the largest military force to
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confront Iran, in order to end a conflict that has dragged on for ages. The reality is that the presence of the two carriers in the Strait
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of Hormuz Hormuz means the Pentagon is preparing for sustained air campaigns that could last for weeks, not a
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swift, precise surgical strike like Operation Midnight Hammer, which led to the 12-day war. This is to prove
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that Trump means what he says and that he will deliver a decisive blow to Iran's capabilities if it doesn't respond
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to American demands in negotiations. In fact, Trump gave Iran a one-month deadline,
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which I believe will be after Eid al-Fitr. I think this is to avoid launching a strike during Ramadan,
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as this might have provoked strong reactions throughout the Muslim world. This leads us to
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an important question: what are the indicators of an imminent American strike? In my personal opinion, there are several
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indicators: First, the unprecedented military buildup at American bases in the region and the naval buildup
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off the Strait of Hormuz, which I see as more than just a prelude; it's preparation for a large-scale attack without a
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ground invasion. Second, Trump's insistence on resolving the Gaza issue, given the difficulty of launching a major war with a
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burning front in the rear. Third, the political green light given by America after its outreach to countries in the region.
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Four. A massive rise in gold prices as a safe haven. This, to me, indicates
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that financial elites and major investors are hedging because a confrontation is undoubtedly coming. Five.
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The real target remains, and this is more important than Iran. The next strike will not target
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only the Iranian nuclear program or Israel's security. Its aim is to counter the
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growing Chinese-Russian alliance with Iran, as Iran connects China and Russia to energy markets and trade routes.
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Therefore, controlling or neutralizing Iran would mean delivering a massive blow to the Chinese-
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Russian axis and restoring American control over the arteries of global energy, oil, gas, and trade.
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So, gentlemen, the story is bigger than Iran, whose defeat would be a tool to break the Eastern Bloc and
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usher in a new chapter of the Cold War. Military buildup, political silence,
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and financial inflation are all symptoms of the great battle to reshape the new world order.
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Now, let's turn to Iran and its messages. Is what the Supreme Leader said about the possibility of sinking
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American aircraft carriers true? And what is Iran's message in announcing the Khorramshahr-4
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ballistic missile, named, incidentally, after the city of Khorramshahr in
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Khuzestan province, a symbol of resistance against the Iraqi occupation that remained steadfast for eight years?
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The truth is that destroying any naval vessel or disabling an aircraft carrier... One of the aircraft carriers out of service,
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not even sinking it, would represent a major victory for Iran in the face of Trump's arrogance. Hence came
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Iran's message through the announcement of the latest version, the Khorramshahr-e Arba'a, as one of the
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deterrent means presented in negotiations. This missile uses solid fuel and has an accuracy
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of only 30 meters. Its speed outside the atmosphere reaches 16 times the speed of sound,
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and inside the atmosphere, it reaches eight times the speed of sound. This reduces the response time of air defense systems
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to intercept it to a minimum, not making it impossible to intercept. However, the danger of this version of the
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Khorramshahr-e Arba'a missile lies in its ability to carry nuclear warheads, and in a conventional war, it can carry a warhead
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weighing 1.5 to 1.8 tons. It features a guidance system and maneuverability in the middle flight phase, making
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it immune to electronic warfare attacks that often target the guidance systems of these
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missiles within the atmosphere. In his estimation, Iran sent messages to Washington and Tel Aviv
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that it is ready to respond and deter, especially This missile was used without prior announcement
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during the last two days of the 12-day war. Western intelligence reports, not Israeli ones,
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confirmed that all missiles of this type successfully penetrated the
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Israeli, American, and British air defense systems
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. This caused confusion among the three countries and was one of the reasons for ending the war,
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given its devastating impact within Israel and the success of its testing. So what would happen if
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it were used against the aircraft carriers and their accompanying naval vessels? This raises the important question:
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Does Iran possess a large number of these hypersonic ballistic missiles?
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From the reports I've seen, the number is in the hundreds, specifically perhaps around 500
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hypersonic ballistic missiles. This raises a very important question: Is Iran currently in the process of manufacturing
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nuclear fuel for its missiles? And if so, what are the dangers? I'm asking this question because of information circulating,
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the veracity of which I'm not 100% certain, but I'm presenting it to the viewers as is. This
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information suggests that Iran is nearing completion of manufacturing nuclear fuel for its missiles. What will this
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do? This will significantly increase the range of these missiles because, in this case,
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a small amount of solid fuel is used to propel the missile beyond the atmosphere. However, once outside the
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atmosphere, nuclear fuel begins to drive the missile for vast distances.
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This means that Iran may be capable of targeting vital targets and sensitive sites
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within the United States. Does this represent the reality that has disturbed Trump, leading
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him—and not just Israel—to insist on limiting the capabilities and range of the Iranian missile program? The
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coming days will prove the accuracy of this information, as well as the rumors about Iran acquiring
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electromagnetic weapons from China that have not yet been tested, and missiles from
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North Korea that China also delivered to Iran. It is strongly rumored that these weapons are being provided free of charge in
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exchange for field testing during combat to determine their destructive power and
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accuracy. On the other hand, what I am certain of is that Iran has prepared entire underground missile cities
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deep within the mountains, housing between 1,800 and 2,500 missiles. Among them are certainly 500
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hypersonic missiles of various models, including Fatah, Khabar Chicken, and Khorramshahr, all of which are ready
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for launch. The factories, workshops, missile launch pads, and
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supply chains, which relied on liquid fuel, have also been moved deep into the mountains after
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being a vulnerability during the 12-day war. The missile production facilities are now operating
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at maximum capacity, producing 300 missiles annually. This shifts
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Iran's combat doctrine from threatening force to using force, especially given its current readiness for
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direct confrontation with the US and Israel. The undeniable truth is that
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Iran's missile program and its threatening capabilities are the biggest obstacles Trump and the
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Pentagon faced in negotiations, as the alternative would have entailed significant risks. Iran understands that relinquishing its
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missile program would be military and then political suicide. Therefore, the Supreme Leader's message
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, delivered by Ali Larijani to Trump and relayed by the Omani mediator, is that Iran is not
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afraid of the American military buildup or its fleets, and the authority to retaliate has been delegated. In response to any
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American or Israeli attack, all Iranian missile bases will be targeted for immediate retaliation without
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waiting for orders from the military command. However, at the same time, Iran is ready to negotiate. Therefore,
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the American administration's demand to dismantle the missile program—the most important element of any negotiation—is
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a contradiction in itself, and Trump knows this. This is why Trump has not insisted on including this issue in
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the ongoing negotiations and has yielded to Iran's insistence on rejecting its demands, at least so far. This
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leads us to the third side of the triangle of American-Iranian confrontation, namely Israel. How is it
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preparing for the two options: negotiations and the preemptive strike that Israel is threatening?
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Israeli assessments, and not any other assessments, indicate that all its air defense systems,
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along with the American SAD system, were able to achieve an interception rate of
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86% of the 500 missiles launched by Iran. That is,
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430 of the missiles launched by Iran in the 12-day war were intercepted. In this confrontation, it is
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expected that Iran will begin its attack on Israel with 800 missiles. If Israel succeeds in intercepting them
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at the same rate as in the previous round, This is doubtful, as it means Israel
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would be intercepting approximately 690 missiles, while more than 110 would successfully evade
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its air defense systems. Each missile carries warheads of varying sizes
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and weights. If these missiles were to strike their military and vital targets in Israel, it would constitute
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an existential catastrophe, not merely losses. Therefore, Israel rushed to end its testing of the four-missile system,
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which specializes in intercepting hypersonic missiles. This system underwent field testing at the end of
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the 12-day war, although it was still in the testing and verification phase. This indicates
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that Iran is capable of producing its missiles at a faster rate than Israel can destroy them. Consequently,
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Israel cannot coexist with Iranian missile capabilities, especially after
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it was proven that Israeli air defense systems, even at their best, could not intercept
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more than the aforementioned 86% of
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incoming Iranian missiles. It's worth noting that Iran launched 200 missiles. Hypersonic missiles alone would require Israel
00:24:41.360 --> 00:24:48.919
to launch over 600 interceptor missiles to reach that level, which is ultimately doubtful.
00:24:48.919 --> 00:24:54.600
This brings us to an important point: what are the possible scenarios for the next war
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if these talks collapse? In my estimation, one scenario is if Israel receives intelligence...
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Regarding Iran's preparations for launching its missiles, Israel will not wait and will opt for a
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preemptive strike to destroy its missile stockpile. But will Israel be able to carry out its strike alone?
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I have no doubt that America will play a decisive role in supporting the Israeli strike through
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many means: aerial refueling, American electronic warfare aircraft that will jam
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Iranian radar networks, intercepting Iranian missiles heading towards Israel, and so on.
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The second scenario is a limited conflict that begins with strong strikes against
00:25:38.440 --> 00:25:44.440
Revolutionary Guard targets inside Iran. In this scenario, we will find that
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the carefully calculated Iranian response will avoid striking Gulf states to prevent a full-scale war.
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Iran might focus its attacks on the Jordanian Muwaffaq Salti Air Base. The expected course of events is
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a fierce exchange of fire between the two sides, but it can be contained and kept under control. The
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third scenario, the "grand bargain" scenario, is the least likely, but its impact would be significant if
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it were to occur. It would push Trump to achieve a diplomatic and economic victory, perhaps resulting in a temporary freeze
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on hostilities and the lifting of economic sanctions on specific sectors in Iran, such as
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the civil aviation and oil sectors. This would lead to... A short-term lull, perhaps
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postponing the confrontation for a year. In my personal opinion, Trump is focused on resolving the
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nuclear program issue and will leave the Iranian missile program to Israel to handle on its own,
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similar to the agreement between America and the Houthis. That agreement left Israel
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to face the Houthis alone, and time will prove this. That brings us to the end of tonight's episode. Until
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we meet again next week, I'm Rafah Al-Ansari. Goodnight.